Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy

Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy

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The ongoing demographic changes will bring about a substantial shift in the size and the age composition of the population, which will have significant impact on the global economy. Despite potentially grave consequences, demographic changes usually do not take center stage in many macroeconomic policy discussions or debates. This paper illustrates how demographic variables move over time and analyzes how they influence macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation, savings and investment, and fiscal balances, from an empirical perspective. Based on empirical findingsa€”particularly regarding inflationa€”we discuss their implications on macroeconomic policies, including monetary policy. We also highlight the need to consider the interactions between population dynamics and macroeconomic variables in macroeconomic policy decisions.[0, 681] [0.296] TOT change 0.110 0.063 -0049 0.079 0.010 -0.07. (0.001]- ... 43 43 43 Number of if-code 30 29 30 R-squated 0.18- 0.439 0.383 0.770 0.973 0.953 RMSE 3.157 2.889 2.834 0.7.63 0.741 1-170 OECD Japan C.A. GIDP ... 2.844 0.745 0.739 1, 141 Fixed-effect estimation for OECD and OLS for individual country 1/

Title:Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy
Author: Mr. Jong-Won Yoon, Mr. Jinill Kim, Jungjin Lee
Publisher:International Monetary Fund - 2014-11-24

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